JAMES Packer's Crown Resorts may find it hard to make enough money out of the proposed $1.3 billion luxury hotel and VIP casino in Sydney.
The NSW government and Crown have entered into a binding agreement to proceed with the development at Barangaroo, pending the passing of legislation, planning approvals and the issuing of a gaming licence.
Crown Sydney, which is expected to be operational from November 2019, will include a casino open only to invited VIP gamblers and guests, and no poker machines.
Crown will pay a fee of $100 million for the new gaming licence, which will have a 99 year term.
The agreement guarantees total licence fees and gaming tax payments of at least $1 billion to the NSW government over the first 15 years of full operation.
If Crown Resorts chairman James Packer were to seek a return of 10 per cent on the $1.3 billion to be spent on the project, Crown Sydney would have to generate $130 million in earnings, CBA Institutional Equities analyst Ben Brownette said.
Without poker machines that would be hard.
"My view and the numbers I've run suggest that it's going to be very difficult for Crown to make a reasonable return on capital out of outlaying $1.3 billion," Mr Brownette said.
But he said Crown Sydney could generate benefits for Crown's other casinos in Melbourne and Perth.
Having a network of casinos in three capital cities would enable Crown to offer its Chinese VIP players a range of destinations, and make then think twice before switching to Crown's competitors.
Chinese gamblers believe in luck, Mr Brownette said, and if they are faring poorly at a gaming table in Melbourne, for example, they will want to leave.
So having another venue to send them to was important.
Mr Brownette said Crown had not been gifted anything by the NSW government, and was taking a very large risk on Barangaroo.
"Perhaps it is always something that James Packer has wanted, or perhaps there's a bigger prize," he said.
"Perhaps a lot of it is about keeping a global competitor out of Sydney."
Crown's plans also put pressure on Echo Entertainment, the publicly listed operator of Sydney's only current casino, The Star.
"Echo obviously need to lift The Star to another standard," Mr Brownette said.
"They obviously need a six-star offering if there is a six-star offering across the road.
"They've got five years to work it out."
Echo recently spent $870 million upgrading The Star.
Shares in Crown dropped 10 cents to $16.53.

Gambling addict

A PATHOLOGICAL gambler has failed in his bid to sue Melbourne's Crown Casino for the millions of dollars he lost at the venue.
Gold Coast property developer Harry Kakavas lost $30 million during the 15-month, $1.5 billion gambling spree in 2005-2006.
Kakavas, 42, was taking civil action against Crown Casino, its chief executive Rowen Craigie and its chief operating officer John Williams in the Victorian Supreme Court for more than $20 million.
He argued that the casino had preyed on his gambling addiction.

Gambling addict
Justice David Harper ruled today that the casino did not prey on Kakavas and ordered the gambler to pay back the $1 million he owed the casino.
"Crown was not in a position to prey on him," Justice Harper said.
"Despite his attempts to persuade me to the opposite conclusion, he was not a person so helplessly entrapped by his love of cards that he found it impossible to resist Crown's attentions."
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Justice Harper said Mr Kakavas used his power to exclude himself from the casino as a bargaining chip when negotiating the terms of his patronage with Crown.
He said Mr Kakavas never suggested to Crown that he was anything other than capable of maintaining his high roller status.
Kakavas also failed to produce any evidence of a conspiracy by Crown to exploit him, Justice Harper said.
"Crown certainly wanted his custom," he said.
"People like him fed its business. But Crown had no conception of Mr Kakavas as suffering from any kind of relevant disadvantage."
However, Justice Harper did make some criticism of Crown in his judgement saying its relationship with Mr Kakavas did not give him confidence that the casino was a world leader in responsible gambling as it claims.
Mr Kakavas lost his money on the Baccarat table.
His Crown gambling spree ended when he lost more than $2 million in just 43 minutes.
Mr Kakavas also lost millions on the gambling tables of Las Vegas.
A hearing on costs and whether Mr Kakavas will be required to pay interest on the $1 million he has to pay back to Crown, will be held on December 16.
Report wants laws to protect problem gamblers
Gaming operators had been closely watching the case and will be relieved at the outcome.
There was a concern amongst operators that the case may have set a precedent where gambling addicts could sue venues for their losses.
But a report by the Productivity Commission has recommended that laws be created to allow gamblers to sue venues that encourage them to play despite knowing they have an addiction.

The new laws should also bring in penalties for venue operators that induce problem gamblers to continue playing, the Commission's draft report on gambling said.
James Packer authorised cash gifts
Despite the win, the case had proved an embarrassment for Crown's executive chairman, James Packer.
The court had heard that cash payments of $30,000 and $50,000 - authorised by Mr Packer but kept secret from his father Kerry - were occasionally left in gift boxes inside the Crown jet when it picked up Kakavas at Coolangatta airport, just to "get him started".
Kakavas's barrister Allan Myers QC had also alleged that casino executives had developed "a scheme to lure" the Gold Coast gambler back to their casino after they discovered he lost between $3 million and $4 million on a short trip to Las Vegas in 2004.
The court heard that casino executives were aware Kakavas had served jail time for fraud and had a separate charge of armed robbery dropped.
Despite this, they were happy to fly him to the Philippines in the casino's Learjet on two occasions, and provide him with free accommodation at Crown Towers under the pseudonym "Harry Kay".
Executive didn't care about ban
In a secretly recorded conversation with Kakavas, senior executive Richard Doggert allegedly said he "didn't give a monkey's" that the NSW Police Commissioner placed an exclusion order on Kakavas in 2000 preventing him from entering Star City Casino in Sydney.
Between June 2005 and August 2006, Kakavas turned over almost $1.5 billion at Crown's baccarat tables.
His total losses reached upward of $30 million.
The casino had denied executives targeted Kakavas.
-with AAP and The Australian.
online casino slots

Crown Casino

A YOUNG disabled man has complained of being ejected from Crown Casino twice in two days, after separate security guards mistook his cerebral palsy for drunkenness.
Disability advocates say similar incidents to that involving Swan Hill recycling plant worker Gary Erck, 24, are far too common around the country and warn that venues could face legal consequences.
Mr Erck's sister, well known Victorian jockey Michelle Hagley, said Crown's refusal to believe her brother's slurred speech and shaky movement were a result of his disability, not excessive drinking, were deplorable.
"He's obviously not drunk, he's disabled," she said.
Security guards first removed Mr Erck as he sat with a drink watching his uncle gamble at the casino in October. He says he was in no way drunk.
"He (the guard) told me to go and get something to eat and come back, so I went ... and when I tried to get back in they said no, come back in three or four hours," Mr Erck said.
"I tried to tell them I had a disability, and they didn't listen."
The pair returned to the casino the next afternoon and Mr Erck was again barred entry.
"I was dead sober the next day, and they still wouldn't let me in," he said.
Ms Hagley, 28, was still so upset last month that she posted a complaint on Crown's Facebook page, but received no response.
Crown Casino
"Gary would never complain, he's not that sort of person, he just gets on with things," she said.
Mr Erck said the "very upsetting" incident was unfortunately not uncommon.
"It's happened a number of times. It doesn't happen where I live, because they all know me. But it's when I go to town or other places," he said.
"It is upsetting. I normally have Michelle with me or other family so they can explain to them what's wrong. But it doesn't always work."
Rebecca Feldman, of Victoria's Youth Disability Advocacy Service, said being mistaken for a drunk was a common problem for people with disabilities that impair speech and movement, such as cerebral palsy and multiple sclerosis.
"I think a lot of the time it's not that people necessarily want to be malicious or discriminatory, but it's a lack of awareness of the ways that cerebral palsy manifests," she said.
"Staff need to be aware of different disabilities and be able to treat potential patrons with respect, because legally someone could rightly bring a complaint against them under the disability discrimination act and they're likely to be successful."
Crown spokesperson Cary O'Neill would not comment on the case, saying no formal complaint had been made, but in a written statement said the venue was vigilant in enforcing anti-discrimination policies.
"Crown security is particularly sensitive to the needs of the disabled and regularly meets with representatives of a number of disability organisations to ensure that our policies and procedures are as good as they can possibly be," he said.
"If there has been a breakdown in the system, then we apologise unreservedly and it is always open for these people to raise the matter with us directly."
play online casino

JAMES Packer has fired a major salvo in his bid to build a second casino in Brisbane, saying the city needed to think bigger and compete with major Asian destinations in attracting tourists and business.
Speaking exclusively to The Courier-Mail, the Crown chairman said the company had a proven track record in attracting tourists and that a large integrated resort, with a casino as a centre piece, would create jobs long after the mining boom had died.
"Brisbane is a city with a big future," Mr Packer said.
"Everyday its infrastructure and tourism offering improves, but now it needs to think even bigger and try and compete with international cities like Singapore, Dubai, Hong Kong and Shanghai for tourists and business."
Mr Packer, who has casino interests in Macau, said the spending power of the emerging Chinese middle class would transform the world.
"Our major cities need to urgently upgrade their hotels, resorts and tourist attractions if they are going to take advantage of this opportunity," he said.
"Providing a world class tourist offering is one way Australia can create long term jobs for our kids and continue to grow after the mining boom ends. As a country we have a lot of work to do."
Mr Packer and his Crown executives have been involved in discussions with Premier Campbell Newman and his staff over the possible creation of another casino in Brisbane and government sources have indicated there will be some news in September.
Mr Packer said Crown had a proven track record in tourism in Australia, the group's resorts in Melbourne and Perth now attracting mor than 25 million visitors each year.
The Crown chief said when an integrated resort was done well it could help lift a city, an argument also being run by the owners of the current Conrad Treasury Casino, Echo Entertainment in their bid to increase their exposure in Brisbane with a larger facility.
"Look at the impact Crown's resort has had on the Southbank precinct in Melbourne's CBD, It is now a world class entertainment, residential and tourism hub," he said.
"Brisbane deserves much better than its current casino offering and Crown's performance in building and operating high end luxury resorts in Australia is unrivalled."
Mr Packer said Singapore's two integrated resorts had shown that when you build a quality offering that meets the Chinese tourist market - the sky was the limit.
"It creates jobs, extra taxes and strong growth. The Singapore experience also shows that these resorts have a positive flow on effect for the whole local tourism sector.
"We look forward to participating in the Queensland Government's consultation process and showing our tourism credentials to the people of Brisbane."
A second casino in Brisbane would have an estimated price tag of over $1 billion, the Echo Entertainment proposal with a price tag of about $1.3 billion.
Crown has not specified a site for its second casino in Brisbane but it's understood Williams St was the preferred location.

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ECHO Entertainment plans to spend $1.5 billion on a "once in a lifetime opportunity" to take a leading role in Queensland's bid to become a gambling epicentre.
The company has unveiled plans to redevelop Jupiters Hotel and Casino on the Gold Coast, and build a new Brisbane casino to replace its existing Treasury Casino, which due to its location in a heritage listed property cannot be expanded.
Queensland Premier Campbell Newman has said he wants a new casino built in Brisbane to help draw in high rollers from Asia and revitalise the state's struggling tourism industry.
The Queensland government has also said it could issue other new casino licences elsewhere in the state, possibly taking the total number of venues from four to seven.
Echo is expected to face competition for the right to build a new Brisbane casino from James Packer's Crown Resorts, setting the scene for a rematch of their bruising battle in Sydney.
Crown's proposal for a resort and VIP casino at Barangaroo has been favoured by the NSW government, at the expense of Echo's plans expand The Star.
Echo chief executive John Redmond said the Queensland government's desire for a new Brisbane casino - which will form part of a proposed tourism district - presented the company with an exciting opportunity.
"We are extremely excited about the opportunity before us in Brisbane, and see this as a once in a lifetime opportunity and a very substantial opportunity for the shareholders of Echo Entertainment Group," Mr Redmond told the company's annual general meeting in Sydney.
Chairman John O'Neil said Echo's existing presence in Queensland - where it owns three of the state's four casinos - gave it an advantage over competitors like Crown.
"You have to attribute something to incumbency, we've operated in Brisbane and the Gold Coast for many years ... we think we're well positioned," he said.
But the company would need to adapt if the Queensland market was opened up to greater competition, Mr O'Neil said.
"That's the prerogative of governments, we just have to adjust our modus operandi accordingly," he said.
Crown has no presence in Queensland, but owns casinos in Melbourne and Perth, plus a stake in a Macau casinos business.
Both Mr Redmond and Mr O'Neil admitted to shareholders that the company's existing Brisbane and Gold Coast properties had fallen victim to "under-investment" over the years, and the proposed redevelopments were overdue.
Under the plans announced by Echo, Jupiters on the Gold Coast will get a makeover and a new six-star hotel, while the heritage listed Treasury Building will be transformed into a luxury hotel.
But the company hasn't released any details of its plans for the proposed new Brisbane casino, preferring to keep its cards close to its chest until it knows more about the tender process for the licence.
Echo shares dropped 10 cents, or 3.9 per cent, to $2.45