Arsène Wenger gambled on Japan. In 1994, with a French title and European Cup semi-final under his belt, with top European clubs clamouring for his signature, he moved to the other side of the world to join Nagoya Grampus Eight: not any Japanese team, but one that had finished rock bottom last season. Wenger turned their fortunes around, and developed immeasurably as a person. Wenger was right about Japan.
Wenger gambled on Wojciech Szczesny. A few years ago, with his young goalkeeper making a series of errors and fans urging a more experienced name between the posts, Wenger stood by his man. Szczesny is now one of the most assured keepers in the Premier League. Wenger was right about Szczesny.
Wenger gambled on the substitutions. With 14 minutes left in the FA Cup final, and the score 2-2, he withdrew Santi Cazorla and Mesut Özil: two penalty-takers. Minutes later Aaron Ramsey scored the winning goal. Wenger was right about the substitutions.
In fact, a lot of Wenger’s gambles end up paying off: more than his fiercest detractors would probably concede. He gambled that Ian Wright’s legs had gone. He gambled that Nicolas Anelka was too volatile to build a side around. He gambled that a teenage La Masia graduate called Cesc Fabregas was a global star in the making. He gambled that a teenage La Masia graduate called Fran Merida was not. On all of these, he was proved right.
Unless he loses a tooth overnight and finds some money under his pillow, it is looking increasingly unlikely that he will replace the injured Olivier Giroud before the transfer window creaks shut tonight. For the next four months, Wenger is preparing to mount a title challenge without his first-choice striker.
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This may well be his biggest gamble of all.
Yesterday he played Yaya Sanogo up front. Sanogo was a brilliant youth-level player, and he may well be a brilliant adult-level player one day, but at the moment, there is no escaping it: he is not very good. He headed over from six yards. He had a weak shot saved by Kasper Schmeichel.
He fell over a bit. He got caught offside. For the 17th competitive game in a row, he did not score.
When Sanogo gets the ball, the best course of action is usually to wait until he dispossesses himself. For a big striker (6ft 4in) he is surprisingly poor at heading.
While his contemporaries from the France squad that won the under-20 World Cup last summer have matured into world-class talents – Paul Pogba at Juventus, Geoffrey Kondogbia at Monaco, Lucas Digne at Paris Saint Germain – Sanogo has withered on the vine.
Equally, though, consider this: since breaking his leg for Auxerre reserves four years ago, Sanogo has never made more than 13 appearances in a season.
He is 21, but in terms of match experience he may as well still be a teenager. So back to Wenger we go: why is he entrusting Sanogo with the job of leading the line for a team with ambitions of winning the Premier League?
Wenger would probably answer that question with a list of names. Lukas Podolski came on for the last 13 minutes, which the German spent alternately mis-controlling the ball and looking absolutely furious about it. Alexis Sanchez has all the attributes of a modern No 9, but do Arsenal really want one of their most creative players starved of the ball for most of the game? Theo Walcott is not fit yet. Joel Campbell has never scored in the Premier League.
The Arsenal fanbase of 2014 is different to what it was in 1996. They pay through the nose for their season tickets and replica shirts. They are no longer merely enthusiasts but investors, and like all investors they expect a decent rate of return. They were not asking Wenger to sign a striker yesterday; they were demanding it.
This, then, is the backdrop against which Wenger is pitting his gambling instincts.
It is a gamble that may well define Arsenal’s season, and with it the club’s future and Wenger’s own legacy. The stakes could not be higher.
However, consider things from his point of view: when you have built an entire career on gambling and winning, why on earth would you change?
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