As analysts reduced their projections for the growth of gaming in Macau during the current period, David Bain, chief gaming analyst for Sterne Agee went back to the 2010 gaming period to note that during the World Cup, June gaming numbers fell by 20% from the May level.
If that were to be the impact the current World Cup has on Macau gaming, Bain wrote, the gross gaming revenue from May to June, 2014, would end at minus 8% year-over-year.
Through June 22, he writes, the run rate is minus 4% at about $3.4 billion.
“We believe post-World Cup pent-up demand positively influenced the back half of July, 2010, and we expect a similar trend this year (though we note a mitigating effect of an upcoming high-hold VIP comparison next month).”
In July 2010, he wrote, the run rate accelerated to plus 18% versus its average of plus 9% and the previous year’s 4%.
The World Cup headwinds, he said, run through July 13.
“This once in every four years disruption to the gross gaming revenue does not change our long-term secular outlook and we would use any corresponding stock weakness as a buying opportunity,” he concluded.
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